Myth One, the MB's took to Incendiary round when trying to explode a gas tank.. an arrow?.. it will set light to any leaking fuel, but fireball?.. you may have to wait a while for that.
A LOT of spilled fuel under a tank, BLEVE, yes, liable, but not predictable.
Flaming arrows exist... not that hard, considering the incendiary shot on the cannon thread recently?.
Myth two, windage, an arrow fired up will rarely fall down exactly where it came from, bystanders however downwind of the upper breeze may need to watch out?.
Even on a very calm day down on the ground, the likelihood of at least a small breeze up where the arrow goes is highly likely.
Therefore, "In the general direction of", is about as good a guess as you can get unless you have a tower built with wind direction devices and measuring anemometers?.
Will it come down aerodynamically?.
I suspect after initial tumbling, the feather on the back will catch the wind, and it may/should come down point first.
With as much energy more or less than it went up with. How it tumbles may affect its falling and where it falls.
Perhaps a proof of concept can be done in some old aircraft hangar that has a lot of height, and a lower powered bow that doesnt make holes in the roof?.
Outside, open to elements, Where it lands is anyone's guess...
Lethal?. I guess that depends on the power of the bow.
If its a 100lbPlus draw bow, thats a lot of height, and gravity works even at the weekends?..
Of course modern compound bows with an initial 100+lbs draw and let down to 60/[ish], you can go a lot heavier than that, its down to the fitness of the person handling the bow.
Getting a straight up shot.... yeah, again down to the abilities of the bowmen, or women, but not impossible.
Lethal... if your looking up, I guess thats easy, dependant on if it goes through an eye (ask Harald of England about that?.. 1066 and all that?.. )
Dependant on where it hits, yes, it could be lethal.
At least a serious flesh wound...
